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The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, supplying plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 versus the spread, including three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don’t appear to believe so. At least in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
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“All the cash is coming in on Texas,” Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. “We require Arizona State to cover +13.5.”
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The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market also. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns’ opponent, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke to several bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a “very reputable gamer.”

Despite the fact that respected cash has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.

“We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book,” Magee included.

While the Texas game will be big for the books, it isn’t the only video game in the area. We chatted with numerous bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has actually approached a little to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at most sportsbooks. The total varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.

“We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. “I would not be amazed if this line creeps up a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently invite any Boise State cash.”

Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.

So why is OSU favored?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic consulted with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.
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Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before respected money pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A somewhat greater majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.

“We did take some highly regarded money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it’s remained,” Gable stated. “It’s good two-way action at that number right now. The total has actually increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp bettors, told The Athletic that “Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio wagerers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55.”

He did note, however, that the book had actually seen significant buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff’s second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The preferred turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
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What caused the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.

Even though Georgia’s starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has actually been “one-way traffic on Georgia,” according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.